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ZEPHYR Magazine -> Issue 3
T H E
E S T A B - L O I D
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Issue #3 2-1-86
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A weekly electronic magazine for users of
The Establishment BBS (894-6526)
owned and operated by Thane Smith
Editor - Gene B. Williams
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(c) 1986
THIS ISSUE:
My own interest in this week's topic had always been rather
low until about a yearor so ago. The first reports on nuclear
winter were coming out. At about the same time, blind hatred for
the Soviet Union and anything Soviet was reaching a peak. On
another BBS (Lightning One) several users were talking about how
terrific and exciting it would be to blow Moscow off the map, and
were talking about how wonderful it is that we have bombs today
that have more explosive power in a single weapon than all the
power expended in World War II.
This got me to thinking. In a way it struck me as being an
extension of a child's fascination for playing guns, or comments
such as, "You should really go see that movie. It's so bloody!"
Right about this same time I saw the movie, "Testament" for
the first time, which brought it home all the more. Then came the
British movie, "Threads," and the documentary, "The 8th Day," and
still another program that had various scientists (both American
and Soviet) talking about the subject.
I had been talking with a publisher in New York about doing
a book on electronics for jr and sr high students. As yet we've
never been quite able to come up with a decent table of contents
on this project, but it *did* get me on a first name basis with
their senior editor. I called him one morning to see about doing
a book tentatively titled, "Nuclear War - Nuclear Winter." He
jumped at the idea. That book is now under contract, with a
quickly approaching deadline.
In a way, all of you are a test audience. The article here,
plus maybe a few more on the same topic (if you'll allow me to do
it and show the interest) will help me to coordinate my own
thoughts. Your responses and input - including your personal
opinions - are important. Your questions on the topic are even
more important since these will both get me to research the
answers and let me know what exactly *you* want to know.
Don't be afraid to be critical.
This isn't necessarily a depressing topic. In some ways it's
about the most heartening thing that has come about in quite a
few years. As you read on, try to drop your emotions and view it
objectively.
As always, you're welcome to capture this to diskette or to
your printer. (This is a good idea, really, since it gives you
time to actually read, rather than just scan.) Share it with your
friends, parents, teachers, or whoever. (I'd appreciate it if
you'd let me know their reactions, too.)
NUCLEAR WAR - NUCLEAR WINTER
(part 1)
A Brief History
At the turn of this century scientists were just beginning
to study radioactive elements. A World's Fair back then had a
very popular exhibit - "Come and See Your Bones." Radium was
considered by some to be a cure-all, with ads cropping up in
magazines across the world promising that a radium containing
solution could cure arthritis, baldness, impotence and a variety
of human ills.
Just after World War I ("The War to End All Wars") Albert
Einstein became a big name in science. His research, combined
with the research of other scientists such as Roentgen, lead to
the idea that an atomic chain reaction was possible if enough
excess neutrons could be forced to collide with the nucleus, the
element would become unstable, would then split and emit even
more neutrons. These in turn would strike the nuclei of other
atoms, cause them to split, emit more neutrons - and a chain
reaction would be set up.
Some scientists predicted that this chain reaction would be
slow enough to control easily. It was seen as another cure-all.
Predictions were made that by 1950 electric power would be so
inexpensive that it couldn't be effectively metered.
Others saw it as the possible "beginning of the end." As it
turned out, the chain reaction was not only possible but
inevitable. A radioactive material, the most well known being
uranium, when concentrated into a pure mass would give off
neutrons and other sub-atomic particles without any coaxing. Once
enough of the material was gathered together in one place, the
chunk of material would begin a chain reaction all on its own.
This amount of material is called "critical mass."
Below critical mass, the substance is dangerous only for the
radiation it emits. At or above critical mass, chain reaction
begins and - B O O M ! ! !
The project in America that researched this as a weapon was
the Manhatten Project. The location was New Mexico. Time -
towards the end of World War II. The bombs developed here were
the most powerful anyone had ever seen before. Instead of being
rated in tons of explosive power, they were rated in kilotons.
Two were dropped on Japan. Even those who had designed the
bombs had no idea of the total overall effects. They didn't find
out until sometime after. It had been planned that the pilots and
crew would observe and photograph the effects. But within seconds
the ground was hidden behind the flash, the firestorms and the
flying debris.
In 1952 the first hydrogen bomb was exploded. Although this
bomb was small compared to present day nuclear devices, it still
vaporized a large chunk of the island on which it was dropped.
It didn't take the Soviet Union long to develop weapons of
their own, and the arms race was officially ON!
Since then over 1400 warheads have been tested. The
stockpile of nuclear weapons has increased tremendously, as has
the power and accuracy of these weapons.
The total explosive force expended during World War II was
the equivalent of 3 megatons - or 3 million tons of TNT. The
existing stockpile of nuclear weapons is estimated to be the
equivalent of 18,000 megatons. This breaks down to being about
400 tons of explosive power for every man, woman and child on
earth.
The United States alone is building about 10 new warheads
every day. Each of these roughly twice the power of all of World
War II. A single, average submarine has enough power to
annihilate 100 Soviet cities. (At present count, we have 37 such
submarines.)
Calculations show that less than 1% of the existing weapons
could destroy every large or medium-sized city in the world. Add
in the known and predictable aftereffects of radiation, fallout,
fire, social and economic breakdown, and the actual destructive
power becomes even higher.
All this was frightening enough for the United States and
the Soviets to get together in an effort towards disarmament, or
at least a slow down in the number of new weapons being built.
Dinosaurs and an Ice Age
Through all this, politicians and military leaders talked of
"first strike capability" and "total retaliation capability." The
first term describes a condition where the attacker strikes with
enough force to make the enemy incapable of retaliation. The
second describes the ability to counterattack, no matter how
devastating the first attack is. Both the United States and the
Soviet Union easily possess both capabilities.
Still, the philosophy of studying the effects of nuclear war
dealt with the effects of single warheads. Graphs were made to
show how various weapons would affect various targets. Wind speed
and direction were taken into account to show the path of the
fallout.
Meanwhile, another branch of science was sending the Mariner
probes to study Mars. To their disappointment, photos from
Mariner 9 (1971) of the surface were impossible, due to a planet-
wide dust storm. Special instruments on board measured a sizeable
drop in the surface temperature, caused by the sunlight being
blocked out. In 1976 Viking showed that the effects of the
temperature drop were still measurable.
Science had a seemingly unrelated and unanswered question -
what happened to the dinosaurs? Previous findings seemed to
indicate that their extinction was brought about by an ice age.
The problem was in trying to find what could possibly cause our
planet to be thrown into such an ice age so suddenly.
One theory was that a huge meteor or comet had crashed into
the earth, sending up a massive cloud of dust and debris. It was
difficult for most to accept this theory. For one thing, if such
a meteor hit the earth, there should be some sign of it - right?
A relatively small chunk of meteorite hit in northern Arizona.
The crater is not only still there, it has become a major tourist
attraction.
Several possible striking points have been suggested - the
Bay of Biscay near France and Spain, for example. This didn't
solve all the problems, however. Even if such a collision had
occurred, and even if a land mass the size of the Bay of Biscay
was tossed into the air, how could it cause an ice age?
Ideas were tossed back and forth by scientists such as Carl
Sagan and Brian Toon. Almost as if by fate, Mt. St. Helens
erupted in 1980, just a few hundred miles away. Before it was
over, 1/4 cubic mile of dust was tossed into the air. Some towns
downwind remained completely dark for days.
In 1982 a volcano in Mexico blew. This time scientists were
able to photograph and track the eruption by satellite. It took
only 3 weeks for the dust cloud to circle the earth.
These studies showed exactly how the dust could have been
distributed, and how long it would take. As things often are in
science, these findings generated new studies
A layer of meteoritic particles 1 cm thick was found in
rocks all over the world dating 65 million years - just about
right for the disappearance of the dinosaurs. Studies of the
rings in trees showed frost damage in a perfect accordance with
large volcanic eruptions. These things proved that large surface
explosions - even fairly small ones - can affect the climate all
over the world.
Nuclear Winter
The effects of an all-out nuclear war began to be studied,
rather than just the effects of single warheads. All the
information gathered was fed into a computer. The TAPS model was
developed, named after the four scientists who originated it
(Turko, Ackerman, Pimentel (?), and Sagan).
This model indicated that a number of things would happen in
a major nuclear exchange.
There would be the obvious and known damage from the actual
explosions. It has been predicted than about 1/4 of the populace
would die in the first attack. Every major city would be
destroyed in this attack. Communications and transport would
cease.
Clouds of radioactive dust would spread. According to the
department of defense, an average attack on the United States by
the Soviets would throw up enough dust to almost immediately
cover all of the United States and most of Canada and Mexico.
They further predict that half the population would be dead in
the first 30 days - either from the explosions or from radiation
related diseases. Before even the beginnings of recovery - if
this ever happens - some sources predict that as much as 90% of
the population will be gone.
This is the bright side. It has been known and established
for quite a few years. The new studies seem to indicate that it
doesn't stop here. That cloud of radioactive dust will be tossed
high into the stratosphere, where it will remain for many years.
Adding to it will be millions of tons of smoke caused by the
firestorms and other fires.
Within a week virtually the entire northern hemisphere would
be blanketed. Of the sunlight that now reaches the surface, 99%
would be blocked, and either absorbed by the cloud or reflected
back into space by it. Surface temperature would drop to -23C on
the average, with many areas being much colder. This would
continue for several months or longer.
Crops would fail, with no harvest at all for 6 months to 2
years ata minimum. (Some predict that the worldwide freeze would
last longer enough to permanently kill off all plants.) Plankton
in the ocean would die, which in turn will stop the food chain
(no more fish) and the oxygen cycle (no more breathable air).
Since the oceans will hold their heat long after the the
land has frozen, there is a massive difference in temperature.
Differences in temperature is what causes the winds. In this
case, the winds along the coasts - blowing from inland and
towards the water - would reach almost hurricane velocity and
would remain there as long as the ocean was relatively warm.
It used to be thought that the southern hemisphere would be
safe. The same temperature difference that causes the coastal
wind will create unprecendented air movement between the
hemispheres. Within a few months, the southern hemisphere will be
likewise covered and frozen.
In short, within a year or so, there will be nothing alive
anywhere on the earth except a few microbes. (Some have predicted
that even these will die, with the earth being literally
sterilized by radiation.)
The Good Side
It sounds frightening. It IS! But this is also why the new
findings are so nice.
It's no longer feasible to have a nuclear war. If the
Soviets attacked the United States (or vice versa) and we just
sat back and did nothing at all, it wouldn't matter. The studies
show that if just 10% of the nuclear weapons of either side are
set off, nuclear winter sets in.
Imagine two enemies standing in a room that neither can
leave. (We can't leave earth, after all.) Each has a .357 in hand
(which represents non-nuclear arms). Either one can shoot the
other. This isn't enough power to satisfy either, so each gets a
stick of dynamite (representing nuclear weapons here), then 20
sticks, then 50 sticks. (At present the stockpile of nuclear
weapons is enough to kill everything on earth about 100 times
over.)
Is either one likely to light up a stick of dynamite? If one
does, the explosion will kill both the attacked and the attacker.
It's suicide to make use of the dynamite. It can't be used
against the enemy without killing yourself. It doesn't matter if
the enemy lights his stick of dynamite or not - it doesn't matter
if either of the two light 1 stick or all 50. The results are the
still the same.
This is essentially the situation we're in now.
The Soviets have done studies on their own. Their findings
were nearly identical to those of scientists from the United
States. For the first time in a LOONNGGG time, both sides are
moving in the same direction - at least the scientists are. And,
the Soviet scientists are not being squelched.
So, instead of being disheartening, the idea of nuclear
winter just might be the brightest prospect we've had in all too
long. Progress may be slow. Meanwhile, the major powers are
coming to realize that nuclear warfare simply cannot work. Not
just because of first strike versus retaliation, but because even
without retaliation, it's all over.
UNTIL NEXT TIME
Your comments and questions on this week's topic are most
welcome. In fact, I'm purposely looking for them.
Don't let the subject be depressing, though. As I said in
the final part, things haven't looked this good in years. The
chances of having a nuclear war have decreased, rather than
increased. The SALT talks did nothing to reduce the risk. The
present findings have. (Would YOU light that stick of dynamite?)
So, think about it. And respond!
See ya next time!
Zephyr Magazine is ©
Gene Williams. All rights reserved.